Analyzing the horses in the Kentucky Oaks field: Favorites, contenders, pretenders and more notes
The Kentucky Oaks doesn’t get nearly the attention that the Kentucky Derby does, and it is arguably a better indicator of future racing success than the latter is.
The 149th running of the Kentucky Oaks is set for 5:51 p.m. Friday at Churchill Downs. It’ll air on USA Network and stream on Peacock. It is a 1 1/8 mile race for fillies held the Friday before the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. More than 100,000 fans will fill the track for this race. The winner takes home $750,000 of the $1.25 million purse.
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Over the last decade, the winner of the Derby has been voted Eclipse Champion Three-Year-Old Male four times, the same as the number of Oaks winners who were voted Champion Three-Year-Old Female.
Two Derby winners in that period went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic; Kentucky Oaks won four Breeders’ Cup Distaffs.
Honors aside, the Oaks can tend to be more formful than the Derby, with most winners in the last 10 years going off at single-digit odds.
Rain is in the forecast for Friday afternoon in Louisville, so as you handicap, you’ll want to consider horses’ past performances on wet tracks.
My thoughts on this year’s Kentucky Oaks are in post-position order. Record follows the following format: Starts-Firsts-Seconds-Thirds. Odds are the morning line from Churchill Downs.
1 – Mimi Kakushi
Odds: 20-1
Jockey: Mickael Barzalona
Trainer: Salem bin Ghadayer
Record: 5-3-0-0
Bred in Kentucky and sold in Maryland, Mimi Kakushi has never raced in the United States after having been purchased by Sheikh Mohammad bin Rashid Al Maktoum for $250,000. She’s run exclusively in Dubai and built up an impressive record there, winning her last three races by a combined eight lengths. She’s going to have to beat me; I’m not a fan of horses making a big ship overseas.
2 – The Alys Look
Odds: 15-1
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Brad H. Cox
Record: 6-2-1-2
The first of three runners in this race from trainer Brad Cox cost a mere $60,000 as a yearling, and she takes a huge step up in class for this race. Most recently third in her first graded stakes attempt, the Grade 3 Fair Grounds Oaks in New Orleans, she compiled a decent record while running in lower-level races. She’s run once at Churchill Downs, finishing seventh over a sloppy track, which is one more reason to toss her. I can’t imagine that she’ll be anywhere near her morning line odds by post time.
3 – Gambling Girl
Odds: 15-1
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Record: 9-2-2-2
With nine starts behind her, she’s run more often than any other filly in the race, and she’s got an even 2-2-2 record. You have to go back to last fall for her last win, that in a race restricted to New York-bred horses, and she’s facing significantly more accomplished runners here. She was a good third in the Grade 2 Demoiselle in December over a sloppy track; she moves up if the rains come. With a closing running style, she’ll benefit from what looks like will be a hot pace up front.
4 – Southlawn
Odds: 8-1
Jockey: Reylu Gutierrez
Trainer: Norm W. Casse
Record: 7-3-0-0
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The good news? She’s run three races at Churchill Downs. The bad news? She lost all of them, and by many lengths. After appearing to be meant for turf earlier in her career, trainer Norm Casse is sticking with dirt after she won her last two races, including the Fair Grounds Oaks, on that surface. She’s won on the lead and off the pace, making her an intriguing possibility, and she keeps the jockey that rode her to her last two wins.
5 – Wonder Wheel
Odds: 12-1
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Trainer: Mark E. Casse
Record: 7-4-2-0
She was the two-year-filly buzz horse last year and with good reason. She debuted at Churchill and won her first two races at the Louisville track, and her only loss in 2022 was a runner-up finish in the Grade 1 Spinaway at Saratoga Race Course. She capped off her stellar season with a win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and an Eclipse Award for Champion Two-Year-Old Filly. She’s raced just twice this year, a neck loss at Tampa Bay Downs and a disappointing sixth place finish in the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes at Keeneland. The Wonder Wheel of last year would be a serious threat to this field, but she’ll need to regain that form. Fun fact: trainer Mark Casse’s son Norman trains Southlawn, the horse that will break directly to the left of Wonder Wheel.
6 – Botanical
Odds: 4-1
Jockey: Chris Landeros
Trainer: Brad H. Cox
Record: 6-4-1-0
When you’re hot, you’re hot, and Botanical is hot, having won her last four races by open lengths each time. None of those races were graded stakes, though, and as a handicapper friend of mine likes to say, the waters get much deeper on Friday. She’ll likely be a part of an early contested pace, which could burn her out before she gets to the wire.
7 – Wet Paint
Odds: 5-2 (favorite)
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Trainer: Brad H. Cox
Record: 6-4-1-0
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Your morning-line favorite is, like Mimi Kakushi, owned by Godolphin. Unlike her stablemate Mimi Kakushi, this bay filly has been U.S.-based, and from six starts, she’s got four wins and a second; she lost her first start by seven lengths, but as it was her only start on grass, it’s a throw-out. She’s kept her form and run competitively as her competition strengthened, and she’s a deserving favorite. She can race on or off the pace, making her even more formidable.
8 – Promiseher America
Odds: 30-1
Jockey: Jorge A. Vargas, Jr.
Trainer: Raymond Handal
Record: 4-2-1-0
She’s a lightly raced filly sired by 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. She took three races to break her maiden, then trainer Ray Handel jumped her right up in class to the Grade 3 Gazelle Stakes, and she earned her way into the Oaks with a half-length win over her rival here Gambling Girl. Maiden race to Grade 3 to Grade 1 is a big ask, and I’ll keep my eye on her for races later this summer.
9 – And Tell Me Nolies
Odds: 15-1
Jockey: Ramon A. Vazquez
Trainer: Peter Miller
Record: 7-3-2-0
Another closer that will hope to take advantage of a quick early pace. She’s run well in her seven career starts, her only clunker coming in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She’s one of three fillies in the race with a Grade 1 win, hers coming last September in the Del Mar Debutante. She’s yet to return to the form that earned three straight wins last year, and impressive as her two-year-old season was, I’m treading lightly here.
10 – Flying Connection
Odds: 15-1
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Trainer: Todd W. Fincher
Record: 7-4-0-1
She’s won four times from seven races, often leaving her competitors in the dust, but this is her first graded stakes attempt, and the circuit she comes from–New Mexico–is several notches below the competition she’ll face on Friday. Though her morning line marks her as a contender, a win would surprise me.
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11 – Defining Purpose
Odds: 12-1
Jockey: Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer: Kenneth G. McPeek
Record: 7-3-0-1
She romped at Churchill to break her maiden by six lengths last November, and trainer Ken McPeek has kept her racing steadily since she debuted at Keeneland a month earlier. She was a longshot winner (20-1) in the Grade 1 Ashland in April, and though she’s been beaten by several of her rivals here, she looms a threat with a few caveats: she’s raced twice on wet tracks and finished third and sixth, and as she’ll be running nine furlongs for the first time, will her rigorous 2023 campaign catch up with her? She’s also another speedster in a race loaded with them–will they knock each other out trying to make the lead?
12 – Dorth Vader
Odds: 20-1
Jockey: Luis Saez
Trainer: Michael Yates
Record: 8-4-0-1
She was a huge upset winner (47-1) in the Grade 2 Davona Dale at Gulfstream Park in March, the race that earned her the qualifying points to make the Oaks. Stop me if you’ve heard this before: she likes to race close to the pace. She gets a jockey upgrade to Luis Saez, who is smart enough to try not to get caught up in a speed duel–but he might not have another choice, especially from this post
13 – Affirmative Lady
Odds: 10-1
Jockey: John R. Velazquez
Trainer: H. Graham Motion
Record: 6-2-1-2
Graham Motion is a fairly conservative trainer, and he made a pretty unconventional move last fall to race her as a maiden in the Grade 2 Demoiselle. His confidence and shrewdness paid off with a neck runner-up finish, running her in a listed stakes race next out, in which she finished third. She returned to a maiden race in February, winning it by 2 1/4 lengths, then winning the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. She has Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, who rode her in her first three races, back in the saddle, and if Motion is running her here, she’s worth a long look and will be on my tickets.
14 – Pretty Mischievous
Odds: 10-1
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Trainer: Brendan P. Walsh
Record: 6-4-1-1
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Another speedy one rounds out the field, and if she wants to make the lead, jockey Tyler Gaffalione will have to gun her from this far outside post. In six races, she’s never finished lower than third, including a win and second-place finish in two graded stakes races. She’s won at Churchill Downs, over a sloppy track no less, and if the track comes up wet, she’ll move up, but the question is whether she’ll be able to adapt her running style to this outside post.
(Photo Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; Photos by Getty; Tim Nwachukwu, Wesley Hitt, Andy Lyons)
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